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George Mason �鶹���� alumnus Brian Burke’s career path, from fighter pilot to ESPN data analyst, demonstrates that whether it’s a 4th-and-inches decision or a career pivot into analytics, calculated risks can pay off.

In 2009, the NFL’s two best teams—the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts—faced off in a pivotal showdown. Late in the game, acclaimed football genius and Patriots coach Bill Belichick on a fourth-down play deep in Pats’ territory. Converting would win the game for the Patriots, but a failure would give the ball to the Colts in prime field position. When the Colts stopped Tom Brady’s completion inches short of the first-down marker, Peyton Manning took the field and easily won the game for the Colts.

At the time, many considered the decision a huge blunder, given the conservative, risk-averse culture among NFL coaches, who usually choose the “safe” option of punting the ball on fourth down. But today’s coaches are more likely to be aggressive in these situations, supported by an emerging focus on analytics and a column written at the time by Burke, now a adjunct faculty member.

He turned a hobby of analyzing sports data into something of a big deal, founding in 2006, where he published his findings, in addition to consulting with NFL teams; the New York Times would sometimes print his writing and analysis. A column on Belichick’s decision turned him into an overnight stats celebrity.

“I did the math and estimated that the decision to go for it increased the Patriots’ chance to win the game by 9 percentage points. I wrote up a short article for the Times saying it was the right thing to do, and didn't realize it was going to be controversial,” said Burke, who completed a master's degree in operations research at George Mason in 2015. “The Times cross posted to my website and when I woke up the next morning my phone was blowing up.”

In 2015 ESPN recruited him to be a sports data scientist, which he does from his home in Reston, Virginia. “I’ve got a charmed existence, for sure,” he laughed.

His career started far from campus or a football field; Burke fulfilled a childhood dream when after high school he became an F-18 Naval fighter pilot. He earned a bachelor’s in aerospace engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy and after leaving the service worked for a defense contractor.

But he couldn’t help marrying his love of sports with an analytical mind. “I was talking with a coworker one day of this notion that ‘defense wins championships’ in football; people say it, but is it true?” Burke said. “You could download of data from ESPN.com in the mid 2000’s and I had a regression analysis software and decided to put in the numbers, build some models, and see what came out.”

This love of data and desire to launch his second career led him to wander into the SEOR offices in the Nguyen Engineering building one day in 2014, with no appointment. Late faculty member Andy Loerch, who also served in the military, asked if he could help Burke. The two bonded.

“From that moment on, I thought, ‘This is a great place for me,’” Burke said.

Loerch inspired Burke to enroll at George Mason and became his mentor. When he finished his program, Loerch and Ariela Sofer, then department chair, encouraged him to create a class on sports analytics as an adjunct.

Burke loves the role. “I really enjoy it and enjoy sharing what I know. You don’t know something unless you can teach it, so it forces me to nail down the basics and examine assumptions and go back to first principles.” He said he appreciates the opportunity to connect with fellow SEOR faculty members. “The creative friction when we’re together gives me great ideas.”

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