�鶹����

Director, International Security Program����
Director, Center for Security Policy Studies��
Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason �鶹������
Founders Hall Room 530��
Elaipson@gmu.edu��
703-993-4161��
202-907-1149��(cell)

President Emeritus and Distinguished Fellow 2015 - present��

Columnist for World Politics Review��2015 -��present

Past Positions

President and CEO, The Stimson Center April 2002- October 2015��

Distinguished Fellow, Iran Strategy Project, Atlantic Council, Jan-June 2016��

Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council (1997-2002)

Special Assistant to the US Permanent Representative to the UN (1995-1997)

Director, Near East and South Asian Affairs, NSC (1993-1995)

National Intelligence Officer, Near East and South Asia, National Intelligence Council (1990-1993)

Specialist in Middle East Affairs, Congressional Research Service (1979-1990)

• Member, Policy Planning Staff, Department of State (1986-1987)
• Analyst, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of State (1980) Legislative Aide, Office of Senator Joseph Biden (1977-1979)

Current��Affiliations

Asia Foundation Board of Trustees (2003-2015, Emeritus)����
Advisory Council, Chicago Council on Global Affairs (2014-)��
Advisory Council, Georgetown Institute for the Study of Diplomacy (2015-)��
Member, American Academy of Diplomacy��
Member, Council on Foreign��Relations

Recent��Affiliations

International Council of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (2009-2019)��
American Diplomacy Center Board of Trustees (2012-19)��
Education for Employment Foundation Board (2003-2011)��
USIP Iraq Study Group Experts’ Panel (2005-2006)��
CIA External Advisory Board (2006-2009)��
President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (2009-2013)��
Secretary of State’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board (2011-2014)

Education

MA Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (1978)����
AB Cornell �鶹���� (1974)��
Languages��French,��Hebrew, Arabic

Publications

Monographs

��A��New��Strategy��for��US-Iran��Relations��in��Transition,��(Atlantic��Council��Strategy Paper, Washington, D.C.: October 2016)

Revisiting��Marshall:��Private��Sector��Development��in��the��Middle��East (Stimson��Center, Washington, D.C.: 2015)

Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East (Stimson Center, Washington, D.C.: May��2011) Project director, Editor and Contributing Author

Iraq��and��America:��Choices and��Consequences��(Stimson��Center,��Washington,��D.C.:��Jan 2011) Co-editor with Maureen Steinbruner and Contributing Author

On��the��Move:��Migration��Challenges��in��the��Indian��Ocean Littoral��(Stimson��Center, Washington, D.C., 2010)��Co-editor with Amit Pandya and Contributing Author

The Indian Ocean:��Resource and Governance Challenges��(Stimson Center, Washington,��D.C.:2009)��Co-Editor��with��Amit��Pandya and��Contributing��Author

US��Intelligence��After��September��11:��Closing��the��Gaps��(The��Emirates��Center��for Strategic Studies and Research, Abu Dhabi, UAE: 2003)

Congressional-Executive��Relations and��the��Turkish Arms��Embargo.��Congress and Foreign Policy Series No. 3��(Committee on Foreign Affairs, US House of Representatives,��US Government Printing��Office, Washington, D.C.:��June 1981)

Turkey’s Problems and Prospects: Implications for US Interests.��Report for the Subcommittee��on��Europe and��the��Middle��East,��US��House��of��Representatives.��US Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.: March 3, 1980.

Journal��Articles

“Iran��and��the��Nuclear��Agreement:��Stalemate��or��on��the��Road��to��War?” in The��SAIS Review of International Affairs��(Vol. 39, No. 2) Summer-Fall 2019

“Prospects for Middle East Security Sector Reform”, in Survival (Vol. 49, No.��2) Summer��2007

“While��America��Slept,” in��Foreign��Affairs��(Vol.82,��No.��1.��Jan/Feb��2003)

“The��Middle��East’s Demographic��Transition”,��in��Journal��of��International��Affairs��(Vol. 56, No. 1) Fall 2002

Chapters in Books

“America and the Mediterranean: an Arena for Transnational Threat Management,” in IeMED Mediterranean Yearbook, 2018.��

“From Somnolence to Turbulence: The Global Awakening,” in Managing Conflict in a World Adrift (USIP Press and CIGI, Washington, D.C., January, 2015).

“The Indian Ocean: An Evolving US Policy Agenda,” in Converging Regions: Global Perspectives on Asia and the Middle East (Ashgate Press, Singapore 2014).

“Think Tanks: Supporting Cast Players in the National Security Enterprise,” in The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth, Roger George and Harvey Rishik of, Editors. (Georgetown �鶹���� Press, 2011, revised 2017).

“Syria: Can the Myth be Maintained without Nukes?” in The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider their Nuclear Choices, Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn and Mitchell Reiss, Editors. (Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C., 2004).

Op-Eds and Weekly Columns at World Politics��Review

“How COVID-19 Is Impairing U.S. Security Cooperation Overseas,” (4/9/20)��

Trump and Congress Don’t See Eye-to-Eye on Turkey. That’s Nothing New.” (11/19/19)

“As the Migration Crisis Evolves, the Wealthiest Countries Still Aren’t Doing Enough,” (8/27/19)��

“From Iran to Israeli-Palestinian Peace, Trump’s Economic Focus Misses the��Point,” (6/18/19)

“Mounting Pollution at Home Threatens South Korea’s Leadership on Climate Policy,” (6/7/19)

��Taking the Long View on the Arab Spring, After Bouteflika’s Resignation in��Algeria,” (4/5/19)

“The Army’s Iraq War Study Shows Truth-telling is Still Possible in Washington,” (02/14/19)

“A Glimmer of Hope for Science over Denialism over Climate ��󲹲Բ���,”(12/13/18)

“What does Disarray in the Gulf mean for the GCC?” (11/6/18)

“Foreign Aid is the Latest Casualty of American Retrenchment under Trump,” (10/5/18)

“Looking Back on Three Years of ‘Measured Response,’��(06/12/18)

“How South Koreans are Coping with the Chaos of Trump’s High-Risk Diplomacy,” (06/05/18)

“The Danger and Irrelevance of the Libya and Iran Analogies to Korea��Diplomacy,” (05/29/18)

“Is the US Expecting Too Much out of Iraq’s Elections?” (05/22/18)��

How do you Solve a Problem like Gina Haspel?” (05/15/18)

“Is Democracy Really Dead in the Arab World?” (05/08/18)

“Taking out Yemen’s Houthi Leaders is no Path to Peace,”��(05/01/18)

“How the Fate of the Iran Deal Could Affect Talks with North Korea,” (04/24/18)

“Bombing Assad Won’t Change Resentments in the Middle East over American Power,” (04/17/18)

“Today, the Marshall Plan’s Virtues are the Stuff of History and��Nostalgia,” (04/10/18)

“Making Sense of Trump at War: Ramping up in Afghanistan, Scaling Back in Syria,” (04/03/18)

“The Lessons of Israel’s 2007 Strike on a Suspected Syrian Nuclear��Reactor,” (03/27/18)

“Saudi Crown Prince’s US Tour will Surely Avoid the Ongoing Rift in the Gulf,” (03/20/18)

“Below the Radar, the US is Making Steady Progress on the Climate Security Nexus,” (03/13/18)

“Reforming US Security Aid is Unlikely to Transform the Most Difficult Partnerships,” (03/06/18)

“Will the Spirit of Korean Reunification Linger after the Olympics?” (02/27/18)

“What Iraq’s Reconstruction Conference Revealed about its New Friends and Partners,” (02/20/18)

“Why Libya Shouldn’t be Lumped in with Iraq as a US Foreign Policy��Failure,” (02/13/18)

“Think Tanks Step up in a Polarized Washington where Government Trust��is �����ǻ徱�Բ�,”��(02/06/18)

“Trump found the Sweet Spot where “America First” and the Davos World Meet,” (01/30/18)

“Are Climate Change and the Environment Driving Protests in Iran and��Tunisia?” (01/22/18)

“Why Trump’s Fixation on Friendships with World Leaders could��Backfire,” (01/16/18)

“The Foreign Policy Aftermath of the Iran Protests, in Tehran and��Washington,” (01/09/18)

��“Is Trump’s National Security Strategy a Useful Guide to the Biggest Threats in 2018?” (01/02/18)

“Is the Gulf Cooperation Council Dead? Will it Matter if it is?” (12/19/17)��

“How will Emerging Cyber Threats Change the way We Think about Conflict?” (12/12/17)

“In the Effort to Reduce Weapons of Mass Destruction, the Glass Looks Half��Empty,” (12/05/17)

“The Rise of an Upstart Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia Splits American��Experts,” (11/28/17)

“From Conflict to Climate Change, Are Policy Responses to Food Insecurity Getting Smarter?” (11/21/17)

“US Intelligence Faces Challenges from Tech, Bad Actors – and the��President,” (11/14/17)

“North Korea Tops Trump’s Agenda in Asia. But Can He Deal with the��Geopolitics?” (11/07/17)

“Palestinian Anguish and Quiet Israeli Celebration on the Balfour Declaration’s Centennial,” (10/31/17)

“Does Anyone Want to Replace the US as the Great Power in the Middle��East?” (10/24/17)

“Troubling Insights from Asia about the Durability of Gender-based��Violence,” (10/17/17)

“Jalal Talabani’s Approach to Leadership and Identity in Iraq – and��Beyond,” (10/10/17)

“Are US Diplomacy and Deterrence Working at Cross Purposes with North��Korea?” (10/03/17)

“Is Kurdish Independence from Iraq Impossible? Or Inevitable?” (9/26/17)��

“The Risks of Giving the CIA Expanded Drone Strike Authority,” (09/19/17)

“US Diplomacy is on the Defensive, on Several Fronts at Home and Abroad,” (09/12/17)

“Finding Links between the Flooding in Texas and Asia,” (09/05/17)

“What would a regional strategy for Afghanistan actually look like?” (08/29/17)��

“Are the US and its Allies on the Same Page on North Korea, Russia and Iran?” (08/15/17)

“Trump’s Disruption-Lite Waffling Makes for Less Reliable US��Leadership,” (08/08/17)

“As Stalemate in the Gulf Crisis Continues, the Costs for the Region Grow,” (08/01/17)

“Safeguarding Tunisia’s Success Highlights Congress’ Critical Foreign Policy Role,” (07/25/17)

“After the Liberation of Mosul, Where’s the Good News for Iraq?”(07/18/17)

“State Department Workforce Hopes Tillerson will not Sacrifice Mission for Reforms,” (07/11/17)

“What Obama’s Response to Russian Election Interference Really Reveals,” (06/27/17)

“Is the Iran Nuclear Deal in Trouble Again?”��(06/20/17)

"Will the Gulf Cooperation Council Survive the Saudi-Qatar Crisis?” (06/13/17)

“How the Hobbesian Trump Team will Cope with Climate, Terrorism and Nukes,” (06/06/17)

“The Fierce Resolve and Strategic Wisdom of Zbigniew Brzezinski,” (05/30/17)��

“African States Top the Fragility List, but Major Powers are No Longer Immune,” (05/23/17)

“Saudi Arabia and Israel Face the Uncertainties of Trump’s Upcoming Visit,” (05/16/17)

“Rex Tillerson’s Downsized Vision for US Diplomacy,”��(05/09/17)

“Is Trump Changing His Approach to Dealing with his Fellow Leaders?”��(05/02/17)

“Does Trump Think US-Iran Relations Have to Get Worse to Get Better?” (04/25/17)��

“Trump Might be Learning to Trust Expert Opinion. Will his Followers Follow��Suit?” (04/18/17)

“The Danger of Reading Too Much into the US Attack on Syria,”��(04/11/17)

“The Reality of Middle East Conflicts Catches up with the Trump Administration,” (04/4/17)

“Are Iraq and the US Ready to Win the Peace after the Liberation of��Mosul?” (03/28/17)

“Is Iran Actually Losing Ground in the Shifting Geopolitics of the Middle East?” (03/21/17)

“Is Tillerson to Blame for Foggy Bottom’s Funk or is it Deeper Institutional Issues?” (3/14/17)

“In Asia, Many see Opportunities and some Risks in Trump’s Foreign Policy,” (3/7/17)

“Why Trump’s Bilateral Approach to Foreign Policy is Necessary but not��Sufficient,” (2/28/17)

“Are Saudi Arabia and Iran Beginning to Back Away from Confrontation?” (2/21/17)

“Is international cooperation on Terrorism a Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?” (2/14/17)

“On Migration and Security, there are actually three Mediterranean��Stories,” (2/7/17)

“Trump’s Muslim Ban Pours Fuel on the Fire of the ‘Clash of��Civilizations’,” (1/31/17)

“The Bureaucracy and the Trump Administration are Off to a Rough Start,” (1/24/17)

“On Iran, can Trump make the Transition from Campaign Rhetoric to Policy?” (1/1717)

“How to Read the National Intelligence Council’s Latest Global Trends Report,” (1/10/17)

“Thinking Beyond Worst Case Scenarios for 2017,”��(1/3/17)

“Is a Coherent Worldview Emerging from Trump’s Cabinet Appointments?” (12/20/16)

“Can the Gulf States Overcome their Dependence on the US for Regional Security?” (12/13/16)

“Why Trump’s Taiwan Call Might be the Least of Traditional Diplomacy’s Worries,” (12/6/16)

“Will the Iran nuclear deal survive under Trump – and at What Cost?”(11/29/16)

“Where Europeans see Catastrophe in Trump’s Victory, Asians See Chance��for ��󲹲Բ���,”��(11/22/16)

“How will Trump Deal with the Big Three Threats to International��Security?” (11/15/16)

“Can the US be a Model for State-Religion Relations for the Arab World?” (11/8/16)��

“Taking the Long View on the Changing Status of Women in the Middle East,” (11/1/16)

“What would Victory in Mosul mean for Iraq’s Neighbors?” (10/25/16)

“What Comes after Liberating Mosul from ISIS will Determine Iraq’s Future,” (10/18/16)

“Can the Norm of Atrocity Prevention Survive the Syrian War?”��(10/11/16)

“When Doing Less to Stabilize Fragile States is the Least Bad Option,”(10/4/16)��

“Can US Intelligence Restore Public Trust on Balancing Security and��Openness?” (9/27/16)

“Will Obama Re-link US-Israel Security Relations with Palestine Peace?”(9/20/16)��

“In Prioritizing the Biggest Global Threats, Three top the list,” (9/13/16)

“Nuclear Deal Does Little to Change Iran’s Engagement with the World,”(9/6/16)

“Syria Reveals the Limits of Ad Hoc Coalitions and Alliances of Convenience,” (8/30/16)

“Fractured Lands: Making Sense of the Unraveling of the Middle East,” (8/16/16)��

“Olympic Reformers Could Take a page from UN Counterparts’ Playbook,” (8/9/16)

“It’s Time to start preparing for the Challenges of Climate-Driven Migration,” (8/2/16)

“How the next president can right size US goals in Afghanistan,” (7/26/16)

“Failed Coup is a Victory for Erdogan, but not for Turkey’s Democracy,” (7/19/16)

“Turkey and Iraq Illustrate the two sides of the Middle East’s Strongman��Problem,” (7/12/16)

“Drone Casualty Data Highlights the Limits and Downsides of��Transparency,” (7/5/16)

“Brexit’s Ripple Effects will Reach the Middle East Too,”��(6/28/16)

“When it Comes to Defining Moderate and Radical Islam, Who Decides?” (6/21/16)

“Modi’s Visit Clarified the New Normal in US-India Relations,” (6/14/16)��

“Europe and the Mediterranean, Torn between Separatism and Integration,” (6/7/16)

“Rhodes Profile: Citizens, Spin and Truth in the Hybrid Information Era,” (5/24/16)��

“A Century after Sykes Picot, is there a better map for the Middle East?” (5/17/16)��

“Erdogan-Davutoglu Feud puts EU-Turkey Refugee Deal in Jeopardy,” (5/10/16)��

“Playing the Long Game: Getting past near-term Thinking on Terrorism,” (5/3/16)

“Despite Optics of Obama’s Gulf Trip, US-GCC Cooperation Remains Robust,” (4/26/16)

“To Stabilize Iraq, Loosen Internal Bonds without Breaking them,” (4/19/16)��

“First Steps on the Long Slog to Peace in the Middle East,” (4/12/16)

“Can the Laws of War Adapt to a world of drone warfare?”��(4/5/16)

“The Last Nuclear Security Summit, in the Shadow of Brussels,” (3/29/16)��

“Despite Flaws, EU-Turkey Refugee Deal Pulls back Europe Back from Brink,” (3/22/16)

“President Obama’s Foreign Policy Legacy as he sees it,” (3/15/16)

“Is Obama’s Transparency on Drone Policy too little, too late?” (3/8/16)��

“Making the Most of the Worldwide Threat Assessment,” (3/1/16)

“FBI vs. Apple: Finding the Right Balance between Technology and��Security,” (2/23/16)

“Maghreb, Sahel Struggle with Religion as Anti-terror Policy Tool,” (2/15/16)��

Dubai’s World Government Summit: Positive Agenda, Surreal Context,” (2/9/16)

“Clumsy Visa Waiver Changes Part of US Overreaction to ISIS,”��(2/2/16)

“Empowering Reform is the Key to Robert Gates’ Leadership Approach,” (1/26/16)��

“With Sanctions Lifted, will Iran Seek Engagement or Confrontation?” (1/19/16)��

“Can Regional Powers Mediate the Saudi-Iran Conflict?” (1/12/16)

“Nimr Execution is Latest Unforced Error for Saudi Arabia,” (1/5/16)

“UN Peacemakers Wind up Tough Year with a Flurry of Progress,” (12/22/15)��

“Yemen Peace Talks Could Save Gulf States from Themselves,” (12/15/15)

“In War against the Islamic State, US Values must not be a Casualty,” (12/8/15)��

“Ideas but no Consensus for long term Strategies against Islamic State,” (12/1/15) “

At Halifax Forum, Demand for US Leadership Outstrips Supply,” (11/24/15)

“At G-20 Summit, Economics Overshadowed by Paris Attacks,” (11/17/15)

“For Gulf States, Forging National Identity Trumps Regional��Integration,” (11/10/15)

“At India-Africa Summit, Solidarity but not Consensus for Global South,”(11/3/15)��

“Similar Plot Twists, but Different Narratives for Iraq and Syria,” (10/27/15)

“Pragmatism versus “Big Think” in Democrats’ Foreign Policy��Priorities,” (10/20/15)

“Tunisia Quartet’s Nobel Peace Prize sends two Messages,” (10/13/15)��

“No Sign of US-Iran Breakthrough at UN General Assembly,”��(10/6/15)

“UN at 70: Caught Between Accomplishments and Shortcomings,” (9/29/15)��

“Pope’s Visit Underscores Religion’s Prominence in Global Affairs,”(9/22/15)

“Buyer Beware: the Pitfalls of an Economics Driven US Foreign Policy,” (9/15/15)��

“With Iran Deal Secured, Implementation becomes Next Battleground,” (9/8/15)��

“Gulf States’ Inaction Heightens Europe’s Migrant Crisis,” (9/1/15)

“Iraq’s Future is about Much More than the Islamic State,”��(8/25/15)

“As Intelligence Evolves, Is the US Getting Smarter about it?” (8/18/15)

“What the Japan Option Tells us about Iran’s Nuclear Prospects,” (8/11/15)��

“Iran Deal Debate Highlights Think Tanks’ Role in US Policy,” (7/28/15)

“For 21st��Century Problems, States Seek Partnerships, not Alliances,” (7/15/15)��

“Aligning Justice and Security Interventions to Revamp the UN,” (6/23/15)��

“Iran Talks Lurch on, but all Eyes Already on the Day After the Deal,” (6/11/15)��

“The Rashomon Effect: US-Gulf Relations after Camp David Summit,” (5/28/15)

Selected Opinion��Pieces

“” (4/2/20)��

“,” (3/4/20)

“ (1/31/20)��

“,” (1/6/20)��

“” (11/14/19)

“,” (9/23/19)��

“Climate Change Belongs on the International Security Agenda,” (6/27/19) Jeju Peace Forum JPI Peace Net

“”��(6/19/19)

“ (5/14/19)

“ (11/8/18)

“,” (1/26/15)��

“,” (11/20/14)��

“,” (4/2/14)

“More Questions than Answers about Afghan Future,” (10/14/13)��

“” (6/27/13)

“,” (3/7/13) with Chet Crocker��

“,” (8/9/12)